Unconventional Monetary Policy Public
What central banks did when the policy rate hit zero: forward guidance, asset purchases, negative rates, yield curve control, and the long exit. Eight lessons with the evidence, the mechanics of the balance sheet, and flashcards.
Lessons in order
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14 min Public
The effective lower bound
Why the policy rate cannot fall much below zero, why that matters more when the natural rate is low, and what a liquidity trap does to the usual policy logic.
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23 min Public
Forward guidance
Delphic versus Odyssean guidance, the Fed's calendar and threshold promises, and the puzzle that models predict effects far larger than the data show.
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34 min Public
Asset purchases: channels
How buying bonds with reserves can lower long rates: portfolio balance, signalling, liquidity, and what the programmes of the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan looked like.
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43 min Public
Asset purchases: evidence
Event studies, term-premium decompositions, macro estimates, and why central bank researchers find larger effects than academics.
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54 min Public
Negative interest rates
Who went below zero, how far, why banks are the crux, the reversal rate, and what the evidence from the euro area and Switzerland says.
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64 min Public
The central bank balance sheet
Reserves, floor versus corridor systems, why central banks lost money after 2022, and when a balance sheet needs fiscal support.
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74 min Public
Yield curve control and the exit
Japan's cap on the ten-year yield, Australia's failed three-year target, quantitative tightening, and what the 2019 repo spike taught about how far balance sheets can shrink.
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84 min Public
Lessons and open questions
What the toolkit can deliver, its side effects, the argument that it stayed on too long after 2021, how the frameworks changed, and an exercise on balance sheet data.