expectations
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The 2021–2023 test
What drove the inflation surge, whether the anchor held, what the fast disinflation showed, how the frameworks changed, and an exercise on expectations data.
Measuring expectations
Surveys of professionals, households and firms, market-based measures and their risk premia, and why households' expectations look nothing like the target.
Anchored expectations
What anchoring means, why Friedman and Phelps made expectations central, and how anchoring is detected in the data.
Forward guidance
Delphic versus Odyssean guidance, the Fed's calendar and threshold promises, and the puzzle that models predict effects far larger than the data show.